Kenapa Forex?

Kenapa anda memilih Forex? 1.Pasaran dua hala.Anda buleh mendapat untung ketika harege pasaran sedang naik mahupun turun. 2.Pasaran 24jam sehari.Jadual Forex bermula pada hari Isnin jam 00:00GMT dan tutup lewat hari Jumaat.Sabtu dan ahad tiada dagangan Forex. 3.Pasaran yang sentiasa aktif dan bergerak cergas setiap hari.Nilai dagangan mencecah USD $1.5 Trillions sehari. 4.Pasaran Forex tidak tidak dikawal oleh mana-mana individu,badan persatuan atau pun negara.(Global) 5.Bagi mereka yang Muslim,Forex adalah halal ,ini disahkan sendiri oleh Mufti Perak.Anda buleh rujuk berkenaan kenyataan forex di website Mufti Perak : http://mufti.perak.gov.my/kemusykilan/Musykil_utama.htm Persediaan sebelum memasuki alam Forex. 1.Belajar dan usaha memahami asas forex terlebih dahulu sebelum memulakan forex trading sebenar. -ade banyak sumber percuma di internet yang padat dengan pembacaan asas forex antaranya http://www.babypips.com/ , http://www.fxstreet.com/ .Turut serta dalam perbincangan forex dalam forum,anda buleh dapatkan beberapa contoh laman web dan forum forex di http://free-egold.com/ 2.Sebaik-baiknya latih trading forex dengan akaun demo dahulu(guna wang maya). -Anda buleh daftar demo akaun di broker Forex seperti Northfinance atau Marketiva. Panduan Mendaftar marketiva buleh lihat disini : http://sureforex.blogspot.com/2006/11/marketiva.html 3. Belajar mengawal perasaan agar tidak terganggu dengan keuntungan mahupun kerugian dalam Forex. -Beringat yang 90 ke 95% pedagang forex selalunya gagal. -Target anda adalah dalam kelompok 5% tu dengan memastikan kadar keuntungan anda lebih banyak dari kadar kerugian. 4.Berdisiplin dan cuba memahirkan diri dengan satu system/teknik forex terlebih dahulu sebelum mencuba dengan teknik yang lain. -Tidak ade system forex yang 100% untung.Tetapi anda buleh mencari teknik yang baik dengan 70% keuntungan ataupun lebih. 5.Target keuntungan berdasarkan kemampuan dan hendaklah realistik. -Mula dengan target yang rendah seperti 5pips ke 10 pips sehari. Penggerak Pasaran Forex. Walaupun tiada siapa yang mempunyai kawalan mutlak keatas pasaran Forex,mnamun ade beberapa faktor dan kumpulan besar yang mampu menggerakkan pasaran. Kumpulan pertama ialah dari Kompeni atau syarikat Koprat/Multinasional,yang mana mereka ini secara kerap berdagang merentas negara. Kumpulan kedua ialah Broker.Ia bertindak sebagai platform atau perantara diantara diantara individu profesional ,broker-broker lain mahupun bank. Kumpulan ketiga ialah Syarikat Kewangan atau Bank.Terutamanya bank besar seperti Central bank yang mana setiap kali kerajaan atau bank itu mengubah polisi dalaman,seringkali pasaran Forex turut berubah. Komponen dan Terma Asas Forex :- Setiap kali kita berdagang di Forex,kita sebenarnya membeli atau menjual antara dua matawang asing. Setiap Broker Forex ada menawarkan pasangan(pair) matawang asing ini untuk didagangkan dan kita buleh mencapainya di Pelantar(Platform) yang disediakan oleh setiap broker. -contoh broker Forex = Marketiva,Northfinance,CMSFX dan Oanda. -contoh pasangan matawang asing = USD/JPY , EUR/USD dan GBP/USD. -contoh Pelantar = Marketiva streamer,Metatrader,Vtrader dam eSignal. A)Matawang Forex (Currency) Matawang Forex terbahagi kepada dua kelas yang utama iaitu Direct currency dan ‘Indirect currency’. 1)Direct currency merangkumi matawang yang nilainya lebih besar dari US Dollar. -contoh seperti matawang Euro(EUR),Great Britain Pound(GBP) 2)Indirect currency pula ialah matawang yang lebih rendah nilainya berbanding US Dollar. -contoh seperti Japan Yen(JPY),Swiss France(CHF) dan Australian Dollar(AUS). Matawang forex diwakili oleh simbol(singkatan) yang telah ditetapkan. Contoh :- US Dollar=USD,Jepun Yen=JPY,German Pound Sterling=GBP,EURO=EUR dan Swiss France=CHF. Matawang Forex didagangkan berpasangan dan unit yang mewakili pasangan ini adalah kadar harga(rate) bagi kedua-dua matawang tersebut. Contoh pasangan :- EUR/USD,GBP/USD,USD,JPY,GBP/JPY,USD/CHF dan lain-lain. Harga Pasaran Semasa. Standet untuk setiap pasangan matawang dicatatkan dengan dua harga pasaran semasa. Satu ialah harga belian(bid/buy) dan satu harga jualan(offer/sell). Contoh:- harge pasaran semasa pasangan EUR/USD dicatatkan dengan kadar 1.2810/1.2808, dari pada harga semasa itu,'rate' dihadapan(1.2810) adalah harga belian(bid). Apabila kita membuat arahan belian(buy @ long) pada masa itu kita akan dapat harga 1.2810. 1.2808(harga dibelakang) pula ialah harga jualan(offer),harga yang akan kita dapat apabila kita membuat arahan jual(sell @ short). Perbezaan antara harga jualan(bid) dan belian (offer) ini di panggil 'spreads'.Spread berbeza-beza antara pasangan matawang,dari contoh diatas kita buleh dapatkan 'spreads' utk EUR/USD = 1.2810-1.2808=2pips. B) Jenis-jenis arahan(Order). Bagi mendapat keuntungan dalam Forex,kita perlu melaksanakan arahan Belian(BUY) ketika harege pasaran hendak naik dan menutup arahan tadi ketika market sudah tepu atau hendak bertukar arah. Jika keadaan sebaliknya(harege hendak jatuh) arahan Jualan(SELL) perlu dilakukan. Arahan Jual(Sell) dan Beli(Buy) pula ade lagi beberapa keadaan :- 1)Market Order Membeli(Buy New) atau menjual(Sell New) matawang pada harege semasa. Contoh arahan : Jika kita ingin Membeli ,arahan Buy New perlu dilakukan dan arahan untuk menutup pesanan tadi ialah Sell Close. Manakala jika kita ingin menjual,arahan Sell New digunakan dengan arahan Buy Close sebagai penutup. contoh:- BUY NEW 2)Stop Order Menempah Belian(Buy New Stop) atau Jualan(Sell New Stop) matawang dengan lebih awal mengikut arah(trend) pasaran. Contoh arahan : Jika kita jangka harege pasaran naik ke satu point dan ia akan kekal naik,arahan yang betul adalah dengan Menempah Belian(Buy New Stop Order) pada point tersebut . Buy New Stop 3.Limit Order Menempah Belian(Buy New Limit) atau Jualan(Sell New Limit) matawang dengan lebih awal berlawanan dengan arah(trend) pasaran. Contoh arahan : Jika kita jangka harege pasaran naik ke satu point dan ia akan bertukar(reverse) arah turun dari point tersebut,arahan yang betul adalah dengan Menempah Jualan (Sell New Limit Order) pada point tersebut. Buy New Limit C)Arahan Stop Loss(SL) dan Target Point(TP) i)StopLoss (Tahap menentukan Kerugian) adalah arahan yang bertindak menutup posisi 'trading' semasa secara automatik apabila posisi semasa mengalami kerugian dan mencapai sasaran StopLoss yang telah kita tetapkan. ii)TargetPoint (TP) pula arahan yang bertindak menutup posisi trading semasa secara automatik apabila posisi semasa mendapat keuntungan dan mencapai sasaran (TargetPoint) yang telah ditetapkan. *adalah penting untuk menetapkan arahan SL dan TP untuk setiap posisi trading kita.Ini adalah salah satu funsi yang membolehkan kita mengawal kerugian dan memaksimakan keuntungan. D) Pips Pips atau point ialah satu unit bagi mewakili perbezaan terkecil antara dua pasangan matawang yang didagangkan. -contoh,ketika kita memesan arahan Beli(BUY) pada pasangan matawang Euro berbanding US Dollar (EUR/USD) ia berada pada kedudukan 1.2500.Beberapa minit kemudian harege EURO/USD naik ke paras 1.2510.Pada ketika ini nilai Pips= 1.2510-1.2500=+10pips.Nilai positif(+) mewakili situasi untung(in profit) dimana kita pesan Beli(BUY) dan harege naik.Tetapi jika keadaan sebaliknya iaitu harege pasaran turun ke paras 1.2490,nilai pips = 1.2490-1.2500= -10pips(negatif = rugi). 1)Pengiraan Untung Rugi: Contoh pengiraan untung/rugi dalam Marketiva:- -Marketiva menggunakan unit Quantiti(Qty) sebagai nilai/modal/securiti untuk kita membuka posisi. -Tiada had minima dikenakan bagi satu-satu posisi. -Nilai 1 Qty = 0.01usd.Ini bermakna jika ingin membuka satu posisi dengan nilai 100usd,nilai dalam Qty bersamaan ~ 100/0.01=10,000 Qty. Formula mendapatkan nilai usd dari jumlah pips yang kita dapat:- Kadar untung@rugi(dlm usd)= [ (Nilai Pips) X (nilai terkecil pasangan) X (Quantiti yang digunakan) ] / (kadar harga pasaran semasa=harga posisi ditutup) contoh:- kita dapat untung +30pips hasil dari posisi belian(1.2800) yang kita tutup pada 1.2830 dengan modal 10,000qty(100usd). kiraan untung(dalam usd) = [30x0.0001x10,000]/1.2830=$233.83usd. 2)Empat senario Untung Rugi:- *Mereka yang sudah mempunyai pengetahuan asas forex buleh langkau topik ini. Senario1 : -Harga pasaran EUR/USD=1.2800/1.2798 -Kita buka satu posisi belian (Buy Market Order).buy price=1.2800. -Kemudian harga pasaran naik ke point 1.2810. -Posisi semasa = untung positif +10pips Senario2: -Harga pasaran EUR/USD=1.2800/1.2798 -Buka posisi belian (Buy Market) pada 1.2800. -Harga turun ke point 1.2780 -posisi semasa = rugi negatif -20pips Senario3: -Harga pasaran EUR/USD=1.2800/1.2798 -Kita buka posisi jualan (Sell market order) pada 1.2798. -Harga naik ke point 1.2810 -posisi semasa = rugi -10pips Senario4: -Harga pasaran EUR/USD=1.2800/1.2798 -Buka posisi jualan (sell market order) pada 1.2798 -Harga turun ke point 1.2780 -Posisi semasa= untung +20pips. *Apa yang kita mahukan adalah tersenarai dalam contoh senario 1 & 4 dan mengelak senario 2 & 3. F)Zon Masa Utama Forex Dagangan matawang asing Forex mengaktif mengikut pembukaan kaunter oleh Negara masing. Contohnya pasangan matawang yang mempunyai matawang Yen Jepun akan kuat mengaktif ketika kaunter jepun dibuka.begitu juga Australia dengan AUD , Great Britain dengan Pound ,E-12 dengan EUR dan US dengan USD. Zon masa US adalah zon paling aktif unjuran dominasi US Dollar dalam dagangan antarabangsa. Zon Euro adalah yang kedua aktif diikuti dengan zon Jepun dan Australia. Saya akan terangkan lagi secara terpeinci dalam sambungan pembelajaran akan datang. Bagi melihat zon-zon masa forex dari pembukaan market Australia ,kemudian Jepun,Euro dan akhir skali US,anda buleh lihat sumber dari website oanda disini : http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/fxmarkethours/ *(pilih time zon = GMT +8 untuk merujuk pada masa Malaysia) G)Analisa Carta Forex (chart analisys) Ada 3 jenis carta utama dalam forex :- i)Candle stick jepun ii)Line chart. iii)Bar chart. Contoh tiga jenis carta :- Jenis Carta 1)Tren pasaran.(Market Trend ) Secara umumnya terdapat dua jenis tren pasaran iaitu tren utama(major ) dan tren sementara(minor). Dan ade ketikanya pasaran hanya mendatar(Trading range). Mengenal pasti major & minor trend adalah sesuatu yang perlu dikuasai oleh setiap trader. Dalam panduan ini saya hanya tumpu pada analisis carta jenis Candle stick dan menggunakan platform Metatrader4. 2) Analisa Teknikal. Menganalisa harga pasaran secara teknikal adalah satu cara untuk kita mengetahui dan meramal trend yang akan terbentuk dengan membandingkan corak(patern) trend sekrang dengan patern market yang lepas-lepas. Dua komponen utama dalam analisa teknikal ialah chart(carta) dan indicator(petunjuk). Indicator ini bertindak dengan melukis corak diatas carta berdasarkan anasisa kira-kira(study) yang telah diprogramkan. Terdapat dua jenis indicators iaitu leading indicator(mendahului) dan lagging indicators(mengekori). a)Leading Indicators :- - CCI,Relative Strength Index(RSI) dan Stochastic -Menganggar harage pasaran mencapai paras jualan tepu (oversold) dan belian tepu(overbought). contoh leading indicator:- i)RSI -mengukur peratusan jual/beli dengan mentafsir nilai overbought jika RSI >80 dan oversold jika RSI <20. RSI b)Lagging Indicators :- i)MA –Moving Average adalah salah satu indicator yang popular.Ia digunakan untuk menggambarkan trend jika harege semasa melepasi satu-satu unjuran MA.Antara setting MA yang pupolar = 5EMA,20EMA,100EMA,200SMA,60SMA,50EMA dan banyak lagi. ii)MACD –Moving Average Convergence-Divergence,mengukur pergerakan dua Line Moving Average(slow & fast).Biasenya digunakan untuk melihat divergence iaitu ia memperlihatkan corak pergerakan yang berlawanan dengan corak harege pasaran.Default setting = 12-26-9 3)Teknik2: Pendekatan Support & Resistance. a)Support(had sokongan) juga dipanggil valley(lembah) adalah tempat atau zon terendah dimana berlakunya pertukaran arah dari menurun(downtrend) kepada menaik(uptrend). b)Resistance(had rintangan) juga dipaggil peak(puncak) adalah tempat atau zon tertinggi dimana berlakunya pertukaran arah dari menaik (uptrend) kepada menurun(downtrend). Pedagang Forex menggunakan zon-zon Support dan Resistance sebagai panduan menentukan point Entry (masuk) dan Exit(keluar -TP@SL) 4)Teknik3 : Strategi Breakout High & Low Teknik Breakout biasenya digunakan dalam trading harian bagi mengenal pasti sama ada satu -satu trend itu masih sama seperti hari sebelumnya ataupun berubah. Terbahagi kepada dua jenis :- a)Breakout High -satu point tertinggi dicapai melepasi point tertinggi hari sebelumnya. a)Breakout Low -satu point terendah dicapai melepasi point terendah hari sebelumnya. Teknik dan konsep Breakout ini juga fleksibel dan buleh digabungkan dengan mana-mana teknik atau kaedah analisis teknikal lain seperti Fibo dan pivot support&resistance. 5)Teknik4 : Kaedah Fibonacci. Kaedah Fibonacci diasaskan oleh Tokoh Matematik terkenal Leonardo Fibonacci de Pisa yang terkenal dengan buku berjudul Book of Calculation. Beliau telah menemukan banyak formula matematik dan salah satu yang popular dan digunakan sehingga kini ialah Konsep Fibonacci lebih ringkasnya = Fibo. Banyak rujukan percuma yang memberi penerangan asal usul dan pengiraan komples Fibo,tetapi dalam pembelajaran asas saya ini cuma menerangkan penggunaan nombor-nombor atau zon-zon penting Fibo sahaja. Nombor yang biasa digunakan ~ 0.382(38.2%),0.50(50%) dan 0.618(61.8%),ini adalah beberapa nombor 'Magic' dalam analisa teknikal Forex. Apa faedah nya Fibo pada Forex? Oleh kerana popularnya pendekatan Fibo dikalangan Pedagang-pedagang awal,ramai munggunakan ia sebagai salah satu kaedah menentukan zon-zon Support dan Resistance. Contoh kaedah Fibo,Pivot,breakout,support & resistance akan diberi pada update akan datang. Masih ada satu lagi bab yang masih saya belum cover iaitu analisa fundimental(Fundemental analisys - FA). Ketika ini bagi mereka yang ingin penerangan FA dalam bahasa English buleh singgah di website http://free-egold.com/ Kenapa FA sangat penting?Ia penting kerana FA merupakan indicator yang paling utama dalam pasaran forex.Kebiasaannya kita hanya guna TA untuk mengekor/meminpin FA. Tips Sebelum menutup sementara panduan saya ini, sedikit pesanan dari Forex Trader yang terdahulu :- ~Guna 20-30% sahaja dari modal untuk trading dalam satu-satu masa. ~Jika anda ragu-ragu jangan masuk market.Ada kalanya tidak berbuat apa-apa adalah jalan yang terbaik. ~Trading berdasarkan apa yang anda lihat bukan apa yang anda fikir. ~Jika gaya trading anda lebih kepada jangka pendek,tutup sebarang open trade sejurus sebelum berita ekonomi utama (news/market event). ~Seelok-eloknya ambil satu atau dua pasang matawang dahulu untuk anda kuasai. ~Jangan lupa tutup trading pada lewat hari Jumaat.Seeloknya jangan ada open trade pada hari cuti forex. ~Forex can make you win fast but it also can make you loss faster! Sentiasa belajar,sabar dan berdisiplin dalam Forex.

Tips for Trading the Major Currency Pairs

All About the Majors: EUR/USD Making headlines around the globe, the EUR/USD is perhaps the best known pair in the world! For the past 3 years it's been making high after high, but a reversal could send the price plummeting! In the meantime, it provides plenty of trading opportunity as it ranges between extended breakouts. The euro has been called the "anti-dollar" since it is highly sensitive to US data. Because the recovery in the US has been uncertain, the market closely watches developments in the US economy to determine the strength of the recovery. Fears that the US is hitting a "soft patch" in its economic growth generally boost the euro. Though the EUR/USD actively trades 24-hours a day, the most action is concentrated in the time when the US and European banking hours overlap, from 7:00 AM EST to 10:00 AM EST. Of all the majors, this pair best reflects how the US economy is doing compared to the rest of the world. What moves EUR/USD? Surprises in US economic releases This pair is hypersensitive to US data and will move when results come as a surprise- especially indicators that measure growth or recovery in the US. Talk of Euro as an alternative reserve currency Because the US dollar is held as a reserve currency by many banks around the world, a diversification into euros would drive the value of the euro up causing a sharp move in the pair. Interest rate differentials As the Fed raises interest rates, money will flow into the US as investors move to capitalize on these higher returns, boosting the value of the dollar. Trade Deficit Because the imbalance of more imports vs. exports has the potential to reduce the value of the dollar in the long run, the market is very concerned with the trade balance in the US. Changes can cause a big shift in the value of the US dollar. Fundamentals to Watch FOMC Rate Decisions Watched closely since any increases in the interest rate automatically bring in foreign capital, increasing the value of the dollar. US Non Farm Payrolls Amid fears of a "jobless recovery," the market has become very sensitive to this indicator, which measures new jobs created in the US. U.S. Current Account... US Trade Balance A measure of how much the US exports compared to how much it imports. To many net imports can drive the value of the dollar down, since more capital is leaving the US and being sold abroad, which drives down the value of the dollar. US TIC Data Treasury Inflow Capital is a measure of how much foreign buying of US securities is happening. This can offset an imbalance of too many imports, since money is coming to the US to purchase goods which drives the value of the dollar back up. US Retail Sales The US economy is largely driven by consumer demand. If this number is unhealthy, it can indicate a decline. FOMC Minutes The breakdown of Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Scoured for any clues about how the Fed perceives the state of the Economy. Since the Fed makes interest rate decisions, insight into their outlook can help the market predict the interest rate outlook. European GDP Gross domestic product. A measurement of output, and more importantly, growth in an economy. European Trade Balance A measure of how much Europe is importing versus how much it exports. Too many imports mean that the currency will get weaker because more Euros are being sold to purchase foreign goods. European CPI Consumer price index, a measure of inflation in Europe. Inflation that is too high or too low may prompt Europe’s central bank to raise or lower interest rates. ECB Rate Decision Refers to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. If inflation is too high, the ECB will raise interest rates to slow borrowing and spending. If economic growth is sluggish, lowering interest rates will help boost activity. High interest rates make a currency more attractive. IFO Business Climate Survey Acts as an early indicator for economic development in Germany, which is Europe’s largest economy. Measure of sentiment that is weighted by industry to provide a composite outlook. German Unemployment As Europe’s largest economy, German unemployment is read as a gauge of economic conditions in the Euro zone as a whole. US News Ranking:- NEWS CATEGORY TARGET STOPLOSS 1. NonFarm Payroll USA 100 30 2. FOMC Release. 100 40 3. Durrable Good 45 25 4. Bussines Inventories. 45 25 5. Initial Jobles Claim. 45 25 6. Trade Balance. 60 35 7. PPI USA 60 35 8. Personal Income 60 25 9. Consumer Confidence 60 35 10. Consumer Price Index 45 35 11. Chicago PMI 60 35 12. Factory Order/Inventoris 70 35 13. Whosale Sales/inventoris 40 25 14. Univ Michigan Survey 30 20 15. Home Sales 30 20 16. ISM Manufacturers 70 30 17. GDP 90 30 All About the Majors: GBP/USD The GBP/USD, also called the cable, is by far the most volatile pair of all the majors. Prone to huge breakouts and dramatic reversals, the pair can move uninterrupted for hundreds of pips, providing multiple opportunities to traders in all time frames. When the US lowered interest rates, the GBP/USD became a hot carry trade – especially when the housing bubble in the UK prompted the Bank of England to raise UK interest rates further. However, this is becoming less the case with every rate hike out of the US – making the pair extremely sensitive to any changes in the interest rate outlook for either country. The volatile pair trades most actively from London open until lunchtime in the UK (around 4:30 AM EST) and then during early US trading session (7AM to 10 AM EST). It can often travel 150-200 pips a day. HOT Buttons: What moves GBP/USD? Shifts in monetary outlook for the GBP Since the GBP is held by many in carry trades, this pair is very sensitive to any changes in interest rate outlooks. UK housing market The UK housing market is the Bank of England’s top gauge for inflation in the UK. The housing bubble prompted a series of rate hikes, and new developments are closely monitored by the market. US economic data The market is very sensitive to the outlook for the US economy, since recovery has been uncertain. A pickup can have implications for the US interest rate outlook, which could also affect the value of the GBP/USD. Fundamentals to Watch FOMC Rate Decisions Watched closely since any increases in the interest rate automatically bring in foreign capital, increasing the value of the dollar. US Non Farm Payrolls Amid fears of a "jobless recovery," the market has become very sensitive to this indicator, which measures new jobs created in the US. U.S. Current Account... US Trade Balance A measure of how much the US exports compared to how much it imports. Too many net imports can drive the value of the dollar down, since more capital is leaving the US and being sold abroad, which drives down the value of the dollar. US TIC Data Treasury Inflow Capital is a measure of how much foreign buying of US securities is happening. This can offset an imbalance of too many imports, since money is coming to the US to purchase goods which drives the value of the dollar back up. US Retail Sales The US economy is largely driven by consumer demand. If this number is unhealthy, it can indicate a decline. FOMC Minutes The breakdown of Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Scoured for any clues about how the Fed perceives the state of the Economy. Since the Fed makes interest rate decisions, insight into their outlook can help the market predict the interest rate outlook. Bank of England Meeting Meeting at which Bank of England officials set monetary policy and decide whether to change interest rates or leave them the same. UK Housing Prices The UK housing market is the number one gauge of inflation in the United Kingdom. It is closely watched since the Bank of England will raise rates if growth is too high. UK Unemployment The UK economy is closely monitored for any changes. Unemployment is a good general indicator of the health of an economy. UK Retail Sales figures provide a good indication of... UK Inflation indicators are watched closely as they can... All About the Majors: USD/CHF Known increasingly as the "legacy pair" as trading activity moves from USD/CHF to EUR/CHF, the Swissy is the predominant safe haven currency in the world because of Switzerland’s long history of stability and neutrality. When the markets sense geopolitical turmoil, capital tends to move into Switzerland. Unexpected global events and spikes in the price of gold will create opportunities in this pair. Because interest rates in Switzerland are so low, the CHF is also a popular funding currency for carry trades. Because growth in the Swiss economy has been slow for some time, many investors are entering into USD/CHF as a carry trade, making the pair extremely sensitive to any changes in the interest rate outlook for either the US or Switzerland. USD/CHF is most active during European open hours (3 AM to 4:30 AM EST) through the early US trading session (7AM to 10 AM EST). HOT Buttons: What moves USD/CHF? Geopolitical tension: US-negative developments in the world will cause a move in the pair as investors move funds out of US dollars into "safe-haven" Swiss francs. Gold prices Higher or lower gold prices will cause a corresponding move in the Swiss franc since the Swiss franc is one of the few world currencies that still is partly backed by gold. SNB monetary policy Swiss monetary policy changes could have an effect on the standing of the CHF as a carry trade funding currency. Fundamentals to Watch FOMC Rate Decisions Watched closely since any increases in the interest rate automatically bring in foreign capital, increasing the value of the dollar. US Non Farm Payrolls Amid fears of a "jobless recovery," the market has become very sensitive to this indicator, which measures new jobs created in the US. US Current Account... US Trade Balance A measure of how much the US exports compared to how much it imports. Too many net imports can drive the value of the dollar down, since more capital is leaving the US and being sold abroad, which drives down the value of the dollar. US TIC Data Treasury Inflow Capital is a measure of how much foreign buying of US securities is happening. This can offset an imbalance of too many imports, since money is coming to the US to purchase goods which drives the value of the dollar back up. US Retail Sales The US economy is largely driven by consumer demand. If this number is unhealthy, it can indicate a decline. FOMC Minutes The breakdown of Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Scoured for any clues about how the Fed perceives the state of the Economy. Since the Fed makes interest rate decisions, insight into their outlook can help the market predict the interest rate outlook. Swiss KoF Leading Indicators A composite of business surveys from various sectors of the economy (industry, retail and wholesale) that is combined to form a leading indicator that aims to project GDP growth approximately 8 months into the future. Swiss CPI Consumer Price Index. A measure of inflation in Switzerland; a significant change may have implications for interest rate policy in Switzerland. Comments from Swiss officials Watched for any indications of change in Swiss monetary policy. Swiss GDP Gross Domestic Product. A measure of growth and productivity in the Swiss economy. SNB Rate Decisions Any changes in the interest rate by the Swiss National Bank has implications for the pair as a carry trade. All About the Majors: USD/JPY The USD/JPY is an enigmatic pair that gives a good proxy of US versus Japanese strength. At the same time, the Bank of Japan works to keep the Yen weaker than perhaps it truly is, since a strong Yen would hurt Japan’s export sector by making its products more expensive. Because interest rates in Switzerland are so low, the CHF is also a popular funding currency for carry trades. Because growth in the Swiss economy has been slow for some time, many investors are entering into USD/CHF as a carry trade, making the pair extremely sensitive to any changes in the interest rate outlook for either the US or Switzerland. The USD/JPY is most active at the open of the Asian session (6 PM to 9 PM EST) as well as during the early US trading session (7 AM – 10 AM EST). What moves USD/JPY? Chinese Yuan: If China revalues its currency (thereby allowing it to become stronger and closer to its true value) then Japanese exports would be able to compete better in the US and China against Chinese products. If this happens, the Bank of Japan could then stop intervening in the market to keep the Yen weak, which would result in an increase in the value of the Yen Oil prices Japan is highly dependent on imported oil. Higher oil prices can impede both production and growth in Japan as it makes input costs significantly more expensive. Japanese reserve diversification Japan holds large reserves of US securities and currency. A diversification out of dollar only holdings could result in a large sell off in the US dollar, driving the price down. Fundamentals to Watch FOMC Rate Decisions Watched closely since any increases in the interest rate automatically bring in foreign capital, increasing the value of the dollar. US Non Farm Payrolls Amid fears of a “jobless recovery,” the market has become very sensitive to this indicator, which measures new jobs created in the US. U.S. Current Account... US Trade Balance A measure of how much the US exports compared to how much it imports. To many net imports can drive the value of the dollar down, since more capital is leaving the US and being sold abroad, which drives down the value of the dollar. US TIC Data Treasury Inflow Capital is a measure of how much foreign buying of US securities is happening. This can offset an imbalance of too many imports, since money is coming to the US to purchase goods which drives the value of the dollar back up. US Retail Sales The US economy is largely driven by consumer demand. If this number is unhealthy, it can indicate a decline. FOMC Minutes The breakdown of Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Scoured for any clues about how the Fed perceives the state of the Economy. Since the Fed makes interest rate decisions, insight into their outlook can help the market predict the interest rate outlook. Japanese Inflation A measure of inflation in Japan. Closely monitored because when too high or too low, it can prompt a change in the interest rate outlook of a country. Japanese Consumer Spending A measure of how much Japanese consumers are spending. The Japanese economy is driven primarily by its export sector, but consumer spending is an important gauge of economic activity and prosperity. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting When Japanese bank officials meet to determine monetary policy. Has direct implications for currency traders since they often hint at whether or not they intend to intervene to protect the Yen from becoming too expensive—hence making their exports more expensive. Japanese Trade Balance Japanese imports vs. exports – the Japanese economy is highly dependent on exports; a drastic change in this number can have implications on the value of the Yen. Japanese Industrial Production A measure of activity in the Japanese manufacturing sector. This acts as a gauge for the level of production and growth in the economy. Tankan Survey A quarterly business survey gives a detailed assessment of Japanese business conditions. The headline number shows the difference between the proportion of optimistic businesses and the proportion of pessimistic businesses. A large positive number means that optimism pervades. Summaries on FA:- Fundamentals that determine the long-term strength or weakness in the major currencies include: Present and future government Economy and outlook Inflation and inflation target Current interest rates, anticipated changes Trade balance - is it a problem Current account - enough money flowing into the country Present and future government How good a job the incumbent government is doing and how the people view the performance of its present government have a direct bearing on the exchange rate. Future changes in government, especially party changes are equally important. In the U.S. for example, the Democrats are generally viewed as a U.S. dollar negative because they tend to favor a weaker exchange rate; the idea is U.S. manufacturers will be more competitive and that will directly help the blue collar workers (Democrat’s voter base and election engine). Economy and outlook (fall 2003) The present state of the economy and perceived future outlook for the economy have a direct bearing on the exchange rate. The positive ramifications of a strong economy cannot be underestimated. There is clearly a domino effect. People are working and view the future optimistically. So they spend money. The companies are making money so they spend money. Tax revenues are good so the government is spending money. All this spending tends to make the economy stronger still, and so on. When the economy is weak and the outlook is negative the opposite reaction occurs. Inflation and inflation target Inflation has not been an issue this decade for any of the major countries. Deflation has been a problem for Japan and presently the United States is more concerned with deflation than inflation. Inflation outlook has changed because economies like the United States produce far less goods (prone to inflation) and much more services (practically no inflation risk). In fact better ways of servicing can lower costs and serve as a buffer. Current interest rates, anticipated changes The currencies of Australia, Canada and Great Britain have considerably higher interest rates than the United States, Japan, Switzerland and the Euro. The high interest rate currencies have what is known as a positive cost of carry when paired up against a low interest rate currency and that makes them especially attractive to investors. Positive cost of carry simply means the investor earns more interest on the currency bought than is paid on the currency sold. What oftentimes happens is that the high interest currencies are bought when the currencies are stable. Trade Balance – is it a problem A country has a positive trade balance when it exports more goods and services than it imports. When a country imports more than it exports it has a trade balance deficit. The United States has a huge trade deficit problem; each month it imports $40 billion more than it exports. Most of the net U.S. trade deficit is with China and Japan. To correct this glaring imbalance the United States is pressuring China and to a lesser extent Japan to allow their currency to appreciate against the USD; this would make their goods less appealing to U.S. importers. A weaker USD would also help U.S. exporters sell their goods and services abroad. Japan on the other hand has a trade surplus but that hasn’t stopped the Japanese government from officially intervening in the currency markets and buying 80 billion USDJPY this year. The U.S. up until recently has turned a blind eye on these perverse USD purchases. However, recent comments by Fed officials, the tone of the G7 communiqué, and comments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), suggest a change in tactic on the part of the U.S. Specifically, it appears the U.S. wants a lower dollar. Current account – enough money flowing into the country The current account is simply net trade surplus or deficit. When foreigners were buying U.S. stocks with reckless abandon, the U.S. dollars leaving the country in net trade were working their way back through foreign purchases of U.S. stocks. That’s not happening anymore; in fact foreigners have been net sellers of U.S. for a long time now. What is happening is that China and Japan are taking all those trade dollars and buying U.S. government bonds. Problem with that is they have about 25% of all outstanding U.S. government debt; what it means is they could cause on a run on the dollar and or skyrocket U.S. interest rates if they sold a chunk over a short period of time. Summary U.S. Fundamentals Economy doing relatively well but the trade deficit, current account deficit, and budget deficit are all huge and getting worse. The U.S. dollar will end in tears unless something is done to correct these imbalances. U.S. dollar devaluation would help and is in the cards. Short USD is the only trade to be in these days. source : actionforex,YeoMans.